Bohol is still poor: is it good news or bad?

For the last three to five years we were made to believe that Bohol indeed leaped out of the poorest provinces. But a new presentation of NSCB, posted in their website in Feb 2011, showed that Bohol, along with Maguindanao, Masbate, Agusan del Sur, Zambo del Norte, Surigao del Norte, is consistently included in the bottom cluster of provinces in 2003, 2006, and 2009. How come this does not make it to the headlines?

When I posted the above opening statement in Facebook and when I brought it up with my friends, I got different reactions, from the lyrical to the absurd.  Atty. John Titus Vistal of the Provincial Planning and Development Office called me up to say that this was a result of methods revision on the part of NSCB. PRMF Provincial Director Rosalinda Paredes emailed me and other interested parties regarding the need to bring the discussion up to the table again. One friend however, told me that this is good for Bohol as this becomes a justification for project proposals on anti-poverty programs.

Honestly, I feel cheated. In the papers I wrote for the last 2 to 3 years, I couched some of my arguments in the context that Bohol was able to reduce its poverty incidence phenomenally (especially when you consider the time frame of achievement). In several conference presentations, in Belgium, in Ireland, among others, I questioned these achievements and put forth counter arguments....only to realize now that we are still, like the conflict-prone provinces in the South, in the bottom 20 of laggards in terms of poverty reduction achievements.

Consider for example, the table below which I presented in the conference in Singapore;

1997	2000	2003	2006
Sulu	Masbate	Zamboanga del Norte	Tawitawi
Masbate	Sulu	Maguindanao	Zamboanga del Norte
Eastern Samar	Romblon	Masbate	Maguindanao
Ifugao	Ifugao	Surigao del Norte	Apayao
Mt. Province	Lanao del Sur	Agusan del Sur	Surigao del Norte
Lanao del Sur	Sultan Kudarat	Surigao del Sur	Lanao del Sur
Romblon	Maguindanao	Misamis Occidental	Northern Samar
Abra	Tawi-tawi	Mt. Province	Masbate
North Cotabato	Abra	Biliran	Abra
Camarines Norte	Agusan del Sur	Lanao del Norte	Misamis Occidental
Davao Oriental	Mt. Province	Camarines Norte	Agusan del Sur
Northern Samar	Capiz	Kalinga	Occidental Mindoro
Agusan del Sur	Camarines Norte	Sulu	Oriental Mindoro
Antique	Eastern Samar	Sarangani	Sulu
Marinduque	Camiguin	Antique	Kalinga
Surigao Del Norte	Marinduque	Palawan	Surigao del Sur
Surigao Del Sur	Lanao del Norte	Sultan Kudarat	Mountain Province
Camarines Sur	Bohol	Abra	Sarangani
Caraga	Catanduanes	Occidental Mindoro	Lanao del Norte
Siquijor	Zamboanga del Norte	Zamboanga Sibugay	Negros Oriental

Table 1. Ranking of Poorest Provinces in the Country – 1997-2006 (Source: NSCB 2006)

(Red – present in list for 4 periods;  Orange – present in list for 3 periods; Rust – present in list for 2 periods)

In the above table, Bohol only registered a place in one year. But in the recent presentation of NSCB, the figure below surfaces:

  

  Table 2. Poverty Ranking Of Provinces Over time (NSCB 2011)

So what does this tell us?


While it is apparent that there is a revision of methodology, Dr. Virola in his presentation contended that


       "In general, poverty estimates using both the old and refined methodologies showed similar trend/pattern. In terms of levels, estimates based on the old methodology were higher than those of the refined methodology."



Why should we bother?



In a paper I wrote in 2007, I argued the following:

"Despite deficiencies in methodology, poverty statistics in the Philippines has recently become not only as a means of identifying the most deprived regions or provinces and the needed interventions, but also as an evaluation tool of the performance of local government units (LGUs).  Thus, it does not only direct attention to what particular areas of the country require intervention, but it also highlights the ability or the failure of certain LGUs to serve the interests of poor people.  When the NSCB releases provincial poverty statistics and ranking of top twenty poorest provinces, this normally becomes a hot media commodity to which LGU leaders are most sensitive.  Thus, inclusion into what is infamously called as the Club 20 (the term that refers to the twenty poorest provinces of the country), is already a cause of alarm to LGU officials who are concerned of their prominence in the political sphere or the support of their constituents."

Is it a good thing or a bad thing?

I realize that the implications are circular rather than linear.  Also, the data assuming its veracity, may affect different stakeholders in different ways.  But as a province concerned with making our communities progressive and our constituents endowed with capabilities to realize their dreams, this is a cause of worry and concern.